Basically, this thread is for discussion of luck in video games and the question of whether or not luck is an acceptable part of some games. Alternatively, if you just feel like sharing a story of when you had some absolutely amazing luck in a video game, be it good or bad, this is the place to do so.

There are some games in which luck makes perfect sense. Take Mario Party, for example. It's essentially a board game, so anyone playing it is doing so with the full knowledge that they're at the mercy of the dice. Complaining about luck in Mario Party is like complaining about a pool being wet; if luck's not your thing, why the frick-frack are you playing Mario Party to begin with?

There are more... questionable... uses of luck, though, and those are the ones I'm more interested in discussing. RPGs come to mind in my case. I cannot think of a single RPG off the top of my head that doesn't have at least one luck-based mechanic in it. Pokémon is the most frustrating one that comes to mind. In my copy of Pokémon Diamond, it took me several tries to catch Heatran. Most of my failures were because she (it was female in my playthrough) ran out of moves and knocked herself out with Struggle. I looked up the formulas and did the calculations. Assuming the absolute best conditions for catching her (asleep and with one HP left) and the best ball I can use short of a Master Ball (a Timer Ball after 30 turns have passed), any given ball I throw has about a 9.4% chance of working. Assuming the same HP, but no status ailments, and an Ultra Ball instead of a Timer Ball, it's about a 2.3% chance of working. Of course, admittedly, that's just the odds for any one ball, but it's still rather disheartening to know that any given ball I throw is more likely to fail than succeed.

That said, Heatran's a rather extreme example; the game is more merciful with most Pokémon when you're trying to catch them. It's also unfair for me to focus only on bad luck. There are, of course, situations in which a run of good luck helps you avert a game over. I can't count how many times I've had that happen to me in Fire Emblem. One of my units is in a very bad situation; the enemy will kill him/her if the next attack connects, and there is a very good chance that that will happen. Of course, sometimes the game is in a good mood and the enemy misses, giving me a chance to get my unit to safety. Also, let's be honest here: are there any Fire Emblem players out there who don't love it when one of their units gets a critical hit and absolutely wastes an otherwise problematic enemy? Okay, if your unit's in bad shape and getting swarmed, letting an enemy live might be preferable, but I'm not taking those situations into account.

Anyway, I sometimes wonder just how tolerable luck is in those kinds of games. Would the games be better if luck was never involved? I'm currently leaning toward "no," but it's something I'm still pondering, and I'm open to other people's input.

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The problem is that those who do (and don't) mind luck all suffer from the Gambler's Fallacy. If a game is lost, it is rigged. If a game is won, it's luck. When odds are deliberately changed (like in crappy racing games where the opponent can take an hour lead on you, but if you take a lead and screw up once, the opponent is moved to RIGHT BEHIND YOU), it removes luck as an element, and thus one can legitimately claim a rigged match.

As you point out, luck is better when it is a mechanic. When it comes to, say, attacks in Pokemon, luck compensates for lack of movement, aiming, hit boxes, etc. like you would find in a fighting game. As any good game with action in it- let's say Mega Man? Luck isn't necessary, as one can (though unconsciously) predict movement, compensate when aiming, and fire with a predictable result. However, when action/RPG's have things like critical hits, item drops, etc., luck compensates for another void within the mechanics: the inability to do fine aiming. A critical hit, as I understand it, is either a hit with super magic power (i.e. Golden Sun) that happens randomly (or "as we need it", which is BS, Golden Sun, BS!!!), or a blow that lands in a weak point (like what Link does, but less obvious). As for item drops, the compensation is that when one cannot conceivably program each enemy (due to narrative or something) as an individual with x items and y gold because of that enemy's life (as one would expect from a boss character that drops plot items).

As with anything, luck needs to be used with thought. When one decides to use anything in a game, it has to be used with purpose. ... wow, I have been watching too many episodes of Extra Credits. Anyway, that's my thought on the matter. Hopefully it's of some help. I think it'll always have a place in games, it's just certain games.

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Mario Kart. /thread

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I'm going to go on a bit of a different tangent and talk about luck in RPGs. Some games I love it, other games, I loathe it. What really bugs me though is that the luck stat is always different in different RPGs depending on the game you're playing. I wish most RPGs would actually explain what the luck stat does instead of me having to figure it out, it just feels ridiculous at times. One game that I do feel handles luck really well oddly enough is Mario and Luigi: Superstar Saga. What I love about it is that you have some control as to how you gain stats with your luck/stache stat so you can control it to an extent with how often you critical, but one thing that I really think is neat about it is how it affects not only what goes in battle but outside battle too, which comes when you go shopping, which I thought was neat. I prefer games where luck affects critical more than anything else as I love maximizing my DPS in games.



Also, completely agree with Kwando. Had the worst of it in MK7.

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So...so true. For me the best luck I had was in monster hunter. Already said once elsewhere but since this topic is specific...

We had hunted a high rank rathalos and I cut from the tail a rathalos ruby (its rarest drop at like 3% chance) then in the quest results I got another and as a bonus for capturing it I got a third. All at odds below 4% I also bagged a rathalos plate at roughly 5% chance from it too.

My friend ran the numbers, the odds were 1.8 million to one for getting such prizes on that hunt.

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Is there something I'm missing about Mario Kart? The only luck-based mechanic in that game that I can think of is the item roulette.

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Which I hear hit its worst peak in Mario Kart Wii, not MK7. Blue shells abound. MK7 just had terrible mechanics, unlockables were unlocked randomly, and not through achieving certain goals (defeating x grand prix difficulty/cup, getting x time on y course, etc.).

Otherwise, I'm fairly sure people are referring to the Rubber Band AI, which isn't luck by itself. It does change probabilities for the AI if you are winning too well, thereby forcing you to either not win by such a large margin, or to be so good as to be bulletproof.

Those pail next to these examples:

- Monster Rancher. Freakin' Monster Rancher, man. I don't know what's up with accuracy calculations, but 80% will barely hit when it's your monster, but if your opponent has 5%, it might as well be 100%. Not to mention several invisible factors that dictate what your monsters do will give the appearance of luck, as fans are still trying to crack what works or not today. I don't know why I still by the games, and I have no idea why the Trading Card Game Video Game series didn't take off. Battle Card Ep II was AMAZING.

- Dragon Age. With the buffs and debuffs you have, I don't know why they even have luck, since it's so easily bypassed.

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You will always be approaching the finish line on the last lap of the last track of the final cup on the final difficulty.

Then an unavoidable blue shell will hit you, you'll sink like 5 or 6 places as everyone rockets past you over the finish line. When you recover the person in 7th or 8th place will run over you with a Super Star invincibility (because handicaps for losing drivers) and you'll come in last, from first after about 15-20 minutes worth of intense barely-scraping-by racing.

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That's a manipulation of probability in rubber-band AI's, and therefore isn't luck, but an intentional stacked deck against the player. Which isn't luck, but false difficulty created from manufactured difficulty.

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I have to agree with genodragon here. I've certainly had that happen to me, and it's absolutely infuriating when it does, but I wouldn't consider that a matter of luck. It's one thing when a player is outright given a legitimate means of manipulating the odds (weapon choice in Fire Emblem, for example). The computer does things in Mario Kart that are far more than simply manipulating the odds through legitimate means, though. It's pretty much an accepted fact that the AI in that series outright cheats in order to be able to always keep the player on his/her toes.

As it turns out, the item roulette (at least in the later games) is rigged based on your position in the race. Humans and computers alike are subject to this. If you're in first, you can be pretty sure you'll rarely, if ever, get more than banana peels, green shells, and the occasional red shell. If you're in last, however, you can expect lightning bolts, Starmen, Bullet Bills, and the like to be handed to you like coupons at the Babahlese embassy.

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It is also decided by button presses, which magically are better the further behind an AI is. Furthermore, in other racing games where rubber band AI is present (as I think I've already gone over somewhere on this site, possibly this topic?), an enemy can be miles ahead of you, but no matter how far behind you leave your opponents, they're always right behind you- especially when you crash.

Luck is the dice roll- pure and simple. And usually used in absence of other mechanics that would take too long to make, or aren't present yet. Or to emulate something else in real life- like the Mario Party board game example.

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It's funny how you guys mention the worst MK with item abusage by the AIs is Mario Kart Wii, yet I never had a problem with them on my single player campaign run. Mario Kart 7 however is completely different for me, yet I don't see many complaining about the AI's item abuse on that, but it's hit me way more in that game. I can't tell you how many times I had to restart cups over and over in that game because, no lie, several times in races, back to back to back Blue Shells on my last lap. As soon as one hit me and I recovered, got mauled with another one. I really loved it though how after I got blue shelled 3 times in a row that sometimes, the AI would just top it off with me either getting hit by a red shell or a character with a star man. Can't tell you how frustrating that is, getting tossed so far back when I was less than half a lap from winning. Not once have I had this problem in Mario Kart Wii, but it's been consistent in my Mario Kart 7 experience. At least when I got blue shelled in Wii, I was still able to recover. MK7 never even gave me a chance. MK7, I really wanted to love it, but I just couldn't if only because of the abusive AI in my game.

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I haven't played MKWii. I've played MK7, and I agree that it's just as bad. Though my favorite will always be MK64, MK1 a close second.

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Mario Kart Wii has awful Item Roulette. That's basically what I was saying in my very short post. xP

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