NG9 Game Thread (Game Complete!) : Berry Big Circus

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:24 pm

JesusMonroe

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"Huh? Well... alright. Wisdom of the Crowds is basically the idea that the collective wisdom of a group is better than the opinion of an expert. That's why we have websites like Yoohoo Answers, HeapOverflow, Webipedia--they're effective because they don't just rely on a single source or even several hundred experts. It's thousands upon millions of average joes whose information is vetted by thousands of fairly informed average joes.

"There are other examples too. The Stock Market is nearly impossible for a single person to predict, yet a crowd can very often predict when a large dip or recession will happen. America uses trial by jury instead of allowing a single judge to make a decision. There's another study from it too--the 'surprisingly popular' technique. Participants in a survey were given a question with several answers, and they had to say what they thought the right choice would be, and what they thought the most popular choice would be. Surprisingly enough, the 'popular' answer an individual chose was more often the correct one than the 'correct' answer."

Luka paused and looked at everyone individually for a moment. "Think it's worth a shot? We're voting for a wolf--who do you guys think the right choice is, and who do you think the popular choice will be?"

Last edited by JesusMonroe on Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:25 pm

Southern Corn

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Hazel continued staring at the walls for a long time as everyone else probably thought she was going insane. Her eyes suddenly lit up again in the usual demeanour again.

"This says... 'Werewolf'", she murmured.

"That appears to be the last of them", she declared shortly afterwards. "Three different roles hidden in the walls... truly intriguing."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:34 pm

Pierre

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Maximillion frowned listening to Luka's explanation "Sounds a dangerous thing at times, that's probably how conspiracy theorists get a big start too." He gestured for Lukas to go on "I also wanted to know what that...something-geller field you were talking about earlier was."

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:40 pm

JesusMonroe

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"The morphogenetic field can wait, unless somebody thinks they just got an out-of-nowhere intuition. And no that crazy bat doesn't count." Luka didn't even look at Hazel but it was clear he was talking about her. He repeated himself, "Let's stay focused on the task at hand. Who do you think the wolf is, and who do you think the popular choice for wolf is?"

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:47 pm

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"Hey, wait." Ember raised her hand, pointing at where Hazel had been looking. "I think she's right. That says 'werewolf', doesn't it?"

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:51 pm

JesusMonroe

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"Wow, so you can both read. Amazing." Luka tugged his hat down lower, looking down on the floor while quietly muttering. "Whatever, you guys can just make your stupid-ass votes and give the wolves the pot. See if I care..."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:57 pm

Franzise Deauxnim

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Stella folded her arms. "Well, my gut says Ember is the Werewolf... but it feels like the popular answer is going to be Astrid. Which disappointingly doesn't really change things for me."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:03 pm

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“I also think the popular choice will be me, but the correct choice is Max and the Emissary. I hope you have a lecture on the pitfalls of small sample sizes prepared for when this is over,” Astrid said sarcastically to Luka.

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:17 pm

Planetbox

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“Yes, the popular vote is undoubtedly Astrid,” Vivienne added, “I’m not sure voting for Ember is a good idea. She may simply be a Tanner making up the entire blackout story in order to avoid claiming a role and to make her appear more suspicious, especially if no other clear suspects popped up.”

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:30 pm

Pierre

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"It depends on what you mean by correct, but the most suspicious choice is definitely Astrid. We can always punish the tanner later if they exist but if the writing on the literal walls means anything then there's 100% a werewolf in our midst so I say we take the shot and vote for Astrid."

Maximillion idly toyed with his scarf "Obviously though, everyone likes an underdog, I wouldn't be surprised if Astrid's pitiable position made it more likely to turn others to her persuasion. The correct choice is still Astrid".

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:33 pm

JesusMonroe

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"Why do I feel like we're walking into something... ?"

Luka grabbed his arm. "... I think I'm ready to vote."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:56 pm

KamiPanda

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"Always something interesting to say, huh Luka?" The Emissary commented, before addressing the others. "You know, he gave a fascinating talk about money while we were in the parlour. Really put everything into perspective for me.

"As for my answers, well, unfortunately if I were to comment on the 'popular' answer at this point my view would be biased by hearing everyone else answering first. Still, I too would have answered Astrid as the popular answer if asked in the dark. I realise there's a risk that she's the Tanner, but that goes for any suspected Werewolf we accuse. We can only ever work off the balance of probability, and I believe Astrid is more likely a Werewolf than a Tanner."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:59 pm

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Pink: popular vote def. astrid
Pink: i think ember's pmuch a tanner, the insomnia stuff makes no sense to pull as a werewolf
Pink: sooooo i know who i'm voting

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:57 pm

Franzise Deauxnim

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"Wait a minute." Stella eyed Ember skeptically. "What did you mean a minute ago? What says 'werewolf'? I don't see anything."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:06 pm

Planetbox

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“It seems like she’s trying to go along with the old woman’s shenanigans to sow confusion,” Vivienne said, shaking her head. “I’m not seeing these strange visions either.”

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:14 pm

Franzise Deauxnim

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"Perhaps... but let's humor this for a bit anyway, shall we? Whatever this is, it sounds interesting," Stella chuckled.

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:20 pm

Southern Corn

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"It was on the wall again... though I was unaware of the young lady's ability to see it as well", Hazel said simply. "There have been three of these in total now... Insomniac, Villager and Werewolf. I believe there to be some meaning behind these three in particular. That is all."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:31 pm

JesusMonroe

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“Are those just 3 roles in the game? Or could there be a scenario where someone’s been all 3 roles?”

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:35 pm

KamiPanda

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"Oh, you know what? Maybe those are the three roles specifically not in this game," The Emissary suggested. "The numbers add up. 3 roles on the walls, there are 3 roles unused. No-one's claimed Insomniac, Villager is an easy one for a Werewolf to claim and obviously no-one's going to actively claim Werewolf."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:46 pm

Pierre

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KamiPanda wrote:

"Oh, you know what? Maybe those are the three roles specifically not in this game," The Emissary suggested. "The numbers add up. 3 roles on the walls, there are 3 roles unused. No-one's claimed Insomniac, Villager is an easy one for a Werewolf to claim and obviously no-one's going to actively claim Werewolf."

Maximillion nodded "If that's the case, and that's a big if considering several folks can't see these patterns, that would probably make Vivienne the werewolf. She'd know that one villager wasn't in the game and so chose that to claim safely and uncontested." he gestured to Hazel "Could also be Hazel but she drew our attention to this wall phenomenon in the first place so I don't see her self-incriminating herself that way. Would probably make Astrid the tanner."

Maximillion crossed his arms and looked up "Zero, if the tanner wins do the werewolves lose too?"

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:47 pm

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“If that’s the case, there’s one werewolf. So if you guys are saying it’s Astrid, then you’re saying she decided to claim a role that she knew was taken...”

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:51 pm

KamiPanda

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"If this is the case, there's a Minion too, does the Werewolf still learn an unused role in that scenario?" The Emissary asked. "But how would Astrid 'know' Troublemaker was taken anyway? She only learns of a single unclaimed role, which might just turn out to be the unclaimed Werewolf."

"If the Tanner wins everyone else loses," he then said to Max. "The Tanner is a third faction unto themselves."

Last edited by KamiPanda on Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:52 pm

Pierre

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Maximillion shot Luka a look "If she's not a werewolf then she's a tanner, which is maybe even worse but that's only IF the words on the walls mean anything and that's only IF Hazel isn't spouting nonsense as other people can't see it."

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:55 pm

JesusMonroe

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“That’s right.” Luka nodded at Max. “There’s no reason to think this lady is just off her meds. Even if what she’s seeing means something, we’re still guessing the meaning.”

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:59 pm

Planetbox

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Vivienne shrugged. “Well, I know I’m a Villager, so I have no clue what she’s talking about. If she’s the other werewolf, she might be throwing out these roles to make me look suspicious. Being a villager, I make a pretty easy target. But I suppose she could just be trying to confuse us too.”

“And yes, the Werewolves lose if the Tanner wins. The Tanner is considered it’s own faction,” she added.

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Last edited by Planetbox on Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:00 pm

Franzise Deauxnim

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"There's a possibility I forgot to consider earlier, too: Astrid might be the Minion," Stella added. "In that case, she'd want to die to save the Werewolf."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:02 pm

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Astrid sighed. “All this talk is pointless. Max and the Emissary are the wolves.”

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:10 pm

Pierre

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"Shut up Astrid, this isn't about you. Your lies just make you more suspicious" Maximillion snapped as he went back to thinking.

"That's IF the roles on the walls are true. Someone else said they saw them didn't they? Who was that?" He looked around the others "I don't think we had anyone claim insomniac either did we?"

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:12 pm

Planetbox

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"That was Miss Ohring," Vivienne replied, "But I don't exactly trust her...There's very few role distributions where she's not actively working against us."

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:17 pm

Southern Corn

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"If I were lying, I would not need to go about it in such a convoluted manner", Hazel sighed. "I would also not wanted to have risked waiting so long before mentioning 'Werewolf' in particular... That said, you aren't entirely wrong in that there is no concrete meaning behind these words. I presume that the man in the mask's version of it is quite true... regardless, it is not entirely definitive, so it would perhaps be wise to stick to our current votes."

"Of course, I am not lying about being a Villager, so if that interpretation is current, it would still cast suspicion on the nice young lady over there." She gestured in Vivienne's direction, her ring sparkling mystically as she did.

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:36 pm

Franzise Deauxnim

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"There's no reason for Hazel and Ember to both lie about 'seeing' these roles, especially when everyone was ready to vote for Astrid anyway," Stella agreed. "It sounds ridiculous, but I've seen crazier things than this in my life, so I'm willing to buy it."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:20 pm

Planetbox

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“Hazel would have plenty of reason to lie if it were to keep Astrid, a werewolf, from being executed,” Vivienne said, “That would indeed be needlessly convoluted though, so I don’t particularly believe it myself. I just can’t see the purpose these roles are meant to serve.”

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:48 pm

Pierre

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Maximillion sighed "Here's a theory, it's not perfect but I can't figure it out."

"The only one who's been more on Astrid's side is Stella. Now bear in mind the wolves don't want the tanner to win either. If Astrid is the tanner, and Stella suspects that then she'd fight hard so she doesn't get taken out. That makes sense for everybody."

"What I don't get though is why Stella would reveal her role as a Hunter. It wastes the one advantage they have. It's not like regular Werewolf where there's a chance the wolves will kill her. All it does is ensure we wouldn't go for her, which suits a wolf right down to a T and makes no sense for a villager to do. Course' there's always the risk of a counter-claim as well so it's risky."

Maximillion frowned "Why DID you reveal that role Stella? You threw away any advantage from it."

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:53 pm

KamiPanda

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"What's the advantage in a villager keeping quiet about their role in the first place?" The Emissary asked. "Unless they're a Robber or Troublemaker I don't see the benefit. You say a villager wouldn't do something that ensures their survival, but the Village loses if they lynch anyone other than a Werewolf. It's absolutely in a Hunter's best interests that people don't lynch them."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:59 pm

Pierre

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Maximillion groaned "Maybe the game is just poorly designed then. Feels like the hunter's power is worthless if that's the case."

"If the role theory is true then Vivienne is likely the wolf. She saw an unclaimed role, claimed it and then pursued Stella's punishment." He muttered lost in thought.

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:18 pm

KamiPanda

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"We're all novices at this game. I say it's too early to declare it unbalanced without having played it more. Though I doubt I'll be participating in games of this sort in the future myself," The Emissary said.

"The role theory is... probably too dubious to rely on right now," he then said. "It would be ideal if more of us could see the, ahem, literal writing on the walls first."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:39 am

Pierre

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"The fact they've only spotted three names in the walls makes me think that they have to refer to roles not in the game. We've not had an insomniac come forward which is pretty telling."

Maximillion threw his arms up in frustration "Astrid's lie is the only thing I'm certain of then. With one werewolf out there's nothing to be gained by claiming troublemaker but the tanner must be in the game." He tapped his chin "So Astrid is probably the tanner hoping for us to play into her hands." He nodded to Stella. "I retract my vote for Astrid."

He crossed his arms "There is only one villager though, not two so Vivienne or Hazel is lying." He scratched his chin. "Given how the werewolf already knew one role was out, they would probably be able to piece together what the names on the wall mean the second they spotted the villager name in which case it was probably in their interest not to make that information public." He looked over at Hazel an exasperated expression on his face as he debated internally whether Hazel would choose to incriminate herself foolishly.

"Therefore if Hazel was the werewolf claiming villager, they'd probably be aware of the significance and stop but she didn't. So I think Hazel is the genuine villager."

He turned and pointed at Vivienne "Therefore I change my vote to Vivienne. As the fake villager."

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:47 am

KamiPanda

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"Well, for what it's worth I'm keeping my vote on Astrid. I believe her Troublemaker claim was simply to sow chaos, which it indeed did," The Emissary said. "I would rather trust my own reasoning on this than the supernatural predictions of another."

Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:06 am

Pierre

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Maximillion frowned "No, in hindsight I think her Gambit was too stupid. As the wolf before I claimed villager because it was safe. If there is one wolf, then they'd know unclaimed roles so why would they choose something that they don't know is safe. The villager was the right choice for the wolf."

He looked at the wall hoping to see the mystery himself "Besides, we've got other people verifying that they saw the same thing. Might mean collusion but I'm not convinced. It might not be explicitly supernatural either. Zero did design this room. Maybe it's simply coded in a way only certain people would see it?"

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Re: NG9 Game Thread (Round 2)

Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:20 am

KamiPanda

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"The solo Werewolf might have just been told one of the unused roles was 'Werewolf'," The Emissary pointed out. "Claiming Insomniac might backfire too, as someone could easily claim they used their Robber or Troublemaker abilities on them, which they should have been aware of if they really were an Insomniac. So in two out of three cases, claiming Troublemaker isn't really so strange. And even that 2/3 is itself conditional on us believing there's only one Werewolf. I'm still not convinced about Hazel's visions, and even if she did see those three roles, our 'conclusions' about them are themselves only a theory.

"That's not to say there's no value in these new theories, but I don't think they're as watertight as you may believe. They are flawed, just like any stance we attempt to take on who the Werewolves are.

"Oh, and one last thing," The Emissary continued. "Vivienne may be a fake Villager, but if so she might be the Minion. Vote for her and the Werewolves win. A Minion claiming Villager is a reasonable strategy, I think: the Villager role is innocuous and safe, making it actually quite suspicious as it's an easy role for Werewolves to claim. A Minion could count on that and claim Villager. Ember, in turn, is just too suspicious: we're unlikely to vote for her. That makes her less likely to be the Minion, as Minions actively want to be voted for."